2006 Bordeaux...should one buy futures?

The Bordelais are up to their old tricks again. James Suckling has posted on the WineSpectator forums that he reports with great skepticism that some producers have already told him they have produced wines as good or better than their 2005s. Quelle surprise!

2006 will be a difficult vintage to sell. It comes on the heels of one of the finest vintages in many years, if one is to believe the hype created by the wine critics. It is also on the heels of the most expensive vintage in Bordeaux history. How can they sell their 2006 for the same money as the 2005s? By saying they're as good as the 2005s.

I have been a buyer of Bordeaux since the 2001 vintage (in the scheme of things I am still a beginner) and even in the short time I've been buying Bordeaux, prices have skyrocketed irrationally. Many wines that I have bought annually for quite some time are now far outside my acceptable price range. Futures prices, which as recently as the 2003 wines were low enough to convince me to buy to lock in prices have gone haywire. 2005 futures prices were so high that I only bought 6 bottles of red Bordeaux, and only because I knew they were small production wines with high scores, and virtually no chance of ever hitting the shelves. If I wanted them, the time was then.

Fast forward to next month...2006 prices will likely be revealed as Mr. Parker releases his tasting report on the 2006 vintage. My bet is that the vintage will get a lukewarm review from RP based on the difficult conditions late in the growing season, and prices will be lower than 2005, albeit still higher than 2002 and 2004, which may be good comparisons from a quality point of view to 2006.

If what I speculate turns out to be true, I will pass on buying 2006 futures for the most part. Prices for these wines are likely to be better when they hit the shelves in 2009 (the dollar may be stronger and demand is too low), so having patience and not buying into the hype is key.

Unless the Bordelais lower prices on futures again to price the discount they historically applied until last year, I believe the futures process is essentially dead with only the exception of legendary vintages. It's up to the Bordelais to decide.